Explained: What Does NATO's Nordic Expansion Mean for Europe's Security Architecture

Sweden and Finland, Russia's two neighbours, have recently stated their willingness to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. (NATO) The firm commitment to join a military alliance on the part of these Nordic nations is an unprecedented one. While the two countries joined the European Union after the fall of the Soviet Union, neither felt compelled to join a post-Cold War military alliance whose purpose was unclear.?

Following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, both countries agreed to strengthen their ties with NATO. For Russia's attack on Ukraine has in many ways weakened Europe's collective security; countries that are not yet members have realised that joining NATO is the best way to ensure their security.

AFP

Even before the outbreak of the war, a Swedish journalist wrote, "I do not really see how Sweden and Finland will be able to guarantee our security outside NATO when Russia is ready in 2022 to start a completely unprovoked full-scale war against a neighbouring country." While the Nordic countries have never been a part of any military bloc in the past, the current structure of the international system has forced them to take this necessary stance.

The procedure for becoming a member of NATO

The process of acquiring NATO membership is enormously time-consuming. When Poland, Bulgaria, and Chech Republic, for instance, joined the alliance in 1999, it nearly took 20 months for them to pass from the approval stage to full incorporation. If anyone aspires to join NATO, according to the prevailing practice, the countries would formally notify NATO of their desire to join the Alliance, and the North Atlantic Council (NAC) would then need to agree by consensus to permit the NATO secretary general to issue an official invitation for accession talks.?

AP

This occurs at the first stage. In the second stage, the officials and representatives from the aspiring country should establish with the NATO experts that their country meets the political, legal, and military obligations of NATO membership. In a "letter of intent," the applicants' foreign ministries would confirm their acceptance of the obligations and promises.?

Finally, and most importantly, the application for NATO membership has to be ratified by all the 30 member states of NATO. While this is a tiresome and rigorous process all in all, the applicants, Sweden and Finland in this case, continue to receive themselves of NATO protection and security right from the start of this process.?

What does this mean for Europe's Security?

Writing to The Globe and Mail, the Swedish politician and diplomat, Carl Bildt, observed that Finland and Sweden's accession to NATO will alter the European security architecture in two important ways. The first concerns the renewed capacity of Northern Europe.?

NATO will expand its sphere of influence into the north. This means that this region can confidently deter and defend itself in the event of any geopolitical crisis. In addition to Northern Europe, NATO will be better able to manage the Baltic Sea and hence support Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania's defence. Secondly, Swedish and Finnish inclusion in NATO will strengthen the European pillar.?

Reuters

Moreover, it can also be argued that with the inclusion of Sweden and Finland into NATO, transatlantic cooperation will be revived. The expansion of the US-led military alliance in Europe also means that the United States will attain an increasing capability to exercise its hegemony in the region. This is very much in keeping with the geopolitical interests of the US, particularly at a time when Russia is also competing for a sphere of influence in Europe.?

Will this lead to Russian retaliation?

Will the Nordic expansion of NATO provoke an aggression from Russia? In the end, one should not forget that it was NATO's eastward expansion that provoked the ongoing Ukrainian crisis in the first place.?

Russia's Foreign Ministry has warned of "serious military and political consequences" if Sweden and Finland join the alliance. Dmitry Medvedev, former president and deputy chairman of Russia's Security Council, wrote that "If Sweden and Finland join NATO, the length of the alliance's land borders with the Russian Federation will more than double."?

He said that Russia, in such a case, will have to "seriously strengthen the grouping of land forces and air defense, and deploy significant naval forces in the waters of the Gulf of Finland. In this case, it will no longer be possible to talk about any nuclear-free status of the Baltic Sea-the balance must be restored."?

Michael Hirsh, an American journalist who writes for Foreign Policy, made an apt observation: “Finland—if it allows NATO bases, troops, and weaponry within its borders—could permanently heighten the hair-trigger environment that now exists between the Kremlin and Washington.”?

References

Bildt, C. (2022, April 25). Opinion: What NATO's northern expansion means. The Globe and Mail. Retrieved May 5, 2022, from?theglobeandmail

Bremmer, I. (2022, April 23). Finland and Sweden Seem Likely to Join NATO. What That Means for Europe. TIME. Retrieved May 4, 2022, from Time

Russia threatens new nuclear deployments if Sweden, Finland join NATO. (2022, April 14). CNBC. Retrieved May 5, 2022, from CNBC