Southwest Monsoon in Kerala to arrive early in 2025: All you need to know

The Southwest monsoon 2025 is expected to reach Kerala on May 27, almost five days ahead of the usual onset date of June 1, as per the IMD (India Meteorological Department), as reported in TOI. This early arrival of rain could bring relief from the summer heat and benefit farmers who depend on timely showers for kharif crop sowing. Here's everything you need to know about the monsoon in Kerala and its impact this year.

Monsoon in Kerala Likely to Begin Early in 2025

According to the IMD, the monsoon in Kerala is expected to start around May 27, 2025, marking an early onset of the Southwest monsoon 2025. This is five days earlier than the usual date of June 1. The forecast has a possible variation of ¡À4 days, meaning the rain could arrive as early as May 23 or as late as May 31.

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¡ª India Meteorological Department (@Indiametdept) May 10, 2025

This early onset is a good sign for the agricultural sector, especially for kharif crop sowing. Farmers in Kerala and other southern states usually wait for the monsoon to start planting their crops. With rains coming early, they can begin preparations and fieldwork in advance.

Why the Kerala Monsoon Onset Matters

The arrival of the Southwest monsoon in Kerala signals the start of the rainy season for the entire country. Kerala is the gateway for the monsoon over the Indian subcontinent, and its onset marks the shift from summer heat to the rainy season.

Usually, the monsoon in Kerala begins on June 1, with a margin of about seven days either side. By July 8, the monsoon generally spreads to the entire country.

In 2025, the IMD has forecast an early onset using a specialised model developed in India. This model has proven to be accurate in most years, except in rare cases like 2015.

IMD's Prediction Model and Accuracy

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has been providing operational forecasts for the monsoon onset in Kerala since 2005. Their predictions are based on a modern statistical model developed in-house. This model has a standard error of ¡À4 days and considers six key weather indicators to predict the arrival of the Southwest monsoon.

These predictors include:

• Minimum temperatures over northwest India
• Pre-monsoon rain over South India
• Mean sea level pressure over the northwest Pacific Ocean
• Outgoing longwave radiation in the South China Sea
• Zonal wind patterns in the lower and upper atmosphere
• Except for the year 2015, the IMD's forecasts have been mostly accurate over the past 20 years.

Above-Normal Rainfall Predicted for India in 2025

Earlier in April, the IMD had also forecast above-normal rainfall across the country during the Southwest monsoon 2025 season. The rainy season lasts from June to September, and this year¡¯s rainfall is expected to be about 105% of the long-period average (LPA), which is currently 87 cm for India.

This positive forecast means better water availability, higher crop production, and overall support to rural livelihoods. Since 70% of India's annual rainfall comes from the Southwest monsoon, its impact on the economy, especially agriculture, is huge.

Importance of the Monsoon for India

The Southwest monsoon plays a vital role in India¡¯s agriculture, which contributes around 20% to the country¡¯s Gross Value Added (GVA), as reported in TOI. It also supports nearly 50% of the population, directly or indirectly, through farming activities.

Timely and adequate rain is essential for sowing kharif crops like rice, maize, pulses, and cotton. A good monsoon season helps boost crop yields, ensures food security, and keeps inflation in check.

With the Southwest monsoon 2025 likely to arrive early in Kerala, farmers and policy-makers can begin planning ahead. The IMD¡¯s accurate predictions and expectation of above-normal rain offer a promising outlook for the agricultural season and water management across India.

(Note: Dates/timings may be subject to change; details mentioned here are as per the information available.)

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